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Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, by Donella H. Meadows Jorgen Randers
Get Free Ebook Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, by Donella H. Meadows Jorgen Randers
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From Publishers Weekly
Updated for the second time since 1992, this book, by a trio of professors and systems analysts, offers a pessimistic view of the natural resources available for the world's population. Using extensive computer models based on population, food production, pollution and other data, the authors demonstrate why the world is in a potentially dangerous "overshoot" situation. Put simply, overshoot means people have been steadily using up more of the Earth's resources without replenishing its supplies. The consequences, according to the authors, may be catastrophic: "We... believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain. And it will occur within the lifetimes of many who are alive today." After explaining overshoot, the book discusses population and industrial growth, the limits on available resources, pollution, technology and, importantly, ways to avoid overshoot. The authors do an excellent job of summarizing their extensive research with clear writing and helpful charts illustrating trends in food consumption, population increases, grain production, etc., in a serious tome likely to appeal to environmentalists, government employees and public policy experts. Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Review
John N. Cooper, for AxisofLogic.com-This is a wonderful book. Originally published in 1972 as Limits to Growth and refreshed in 1992 in Beyond the Limits, the authors have now issued a 30-year appraisal [Chelsea Green Publishing, ISBN 1-931498-58-X], in which they examine the progress made both in their understanding of the mechanisms underlying the impact of humanity on the world ecology and of steps taken toward remediating the accelerating approach to trainwreck that is mankind's ill-managed and uncontrolled 'footprint' on this planet's environment.Briefly, humanity has overshot the limits of what is physically and biologically sustainable. That overshoot WILL lead to the collapse of the planetary environment's ability to support not only our species but much of the rest of the biosphere if we do not act rapidly and effectively to reduce our footprint. These conclusions provide reasons for both optimism and alarm: optimism because humanity has demonstrated its capacity to act appropriately in one specific instance; and alarm because thirty years have been largely wasted since the consequences of our failing to act were detailed. There is still time but the need to act quickly and effectively is urgent. The authors demonstrate that the most critical areas needing immediate attention are: population; wasteful, inefficient growth; and pollution. They show how attention to all three simultaneously can result in returning the human footprint on the environment to manageable, sustainable size, while sharply reducing the disparity between human well-being and fostering a generous quality-of-life worldwide. Absent this, the prospects are grim indeed.The book is divided into three sections, the first outlining in principle the authors' systems analytical approach to understanding the planet's ecology. Their presentation is clear and comprehensible with an abundance of charts and figures that make visualizing the concepts easy. They successfully avoid the pitfalls of many technical presentations by using familiar analogies and largely avoiding professional jargon. As a result readers come away with insights not just into global interconnectedness of inputs, outputs, accumulation and feedback but also the significance of such dynamics in local, even personal, situations.The second section deals with the authors' updated and revised modeling program, World3, which they utilize to test the plausible effects of changes in human political, economic and social behavior on the environment. Their discussion of World3 focuses on the assumptions for, and results of, a variety calculational scenarios. Details of their latest programming revisions are reserved for an index. Repeatedly they emphasize that their results are NOT prescriptive, but merely descriptive in general terms of likely consequences of humanity's failure or success in rising to meet the issues cited. Again excellent graphics for the various scenarios allow the reader to see at a glance what different approaches toward rectifying past, present and future environmental damage may have.The final chapters describe options open to humanity that the authors believe have the best chance of avoiding social, economic and probably political collapse in the next century or so. We have a choice: the human experiment, possibly even the biological experiment, that is life on this planet can yet succeed and persist in a sustainable way. But to do so will require our species as whole consciously and deliberately to take immediate, remediating steps, now, seriously and adequately to address the issues we have so far failed to do so effectively. It IS up to us. © Copyright 2005 by AxisofLogic.com. (John N. Cooper)"In 1972, The Limits to Growth was published as a clarion call to begin changing the way the world worked so we safely made it to 2050-2070. The authors were clear that the path of change needed to begin "now" so we made a course correction within the next 30 years. Sadly, the message they wrote got badly misunderstood and by 30 years later, scores of critiques to the book claimed the authors warned that the world would run out of oil and other scare resources by 1990 or 2000. It is time for the world to re-read Limits to Growth! The message of 1972 is far more real and relevant in 2004 and we wasted a valuable 30 years of action plans by misreading the message of the first book."--Matthew R. Simmons, energy analyst and founder, Simmons & Company International, The world's largest energy investment banking practice
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Product details
Paperback: 338 pages
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing; 3 edition (June 1, 2004)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 193149858X
ISBN-13: 978-1931498586
Product Dimensions:
6 x 1 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.2 out of 5 stars
83 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#138,178 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The book looks back at the conclusions in the book The Limits To Growth and assesses them based on recent data on energy, resources, the environment, etc. The original "Limits" book warned that continuing growth on the pattern of the past would lead to an "overshoot" and collapse of industrial civilization within a century. This book demonstrates conclusively that the world is now in "overshoot," using resources and producing wastes and environmental impacts in a way that won't be sustainable over the generations just ahead. The analysis is sobering, but it never gives way to gloom and doom. The best parts of the book are its clear, thoughtful recommendations on how to back down our impacts and avoid a collapse.
If you're like me & started wondering how economic growth could possibly go on forever, then you need to read this book. Even though this revision of the original is 16 years old, it's more relevant now than ever since many of the signs of environmental and economic breakdown predicted by this book are coming true on the news every day. The message is clear: we're all in this environmental mess together, and we'd all better start changing our ways - yesterday ! - as it may already be too late.
The LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study. A principal difference, of course, is that advances in computing power have far exceeded probably even the most optimistic expectations in the 1970s, and we can see with greater precision exactly that the effects of our activities are on our tiny planet. Another difference is that many of the trends studied in the initial work can now be confirmed 30 years later.The authors' conclusion is that we have not done much to ameliorate the damage we are doing to Earth, and implicitly to ourselves, by what we have done in the intervening 30 years. We still produce too many offspring, consume too many finite resources, despoil to much of nature's waste-absorbing capacity, and seem to be stuck in a system that inexorably demands still more of the same.But all is not lost. Read this in conjunction with Jordan Randers follow-on study entitled "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years". He uses the same "systems approach" used in this 30-year update. There are solutions, but they will require an informed body politic, thoughtful leadership, and an honest assessment of public policy from all of us.
An interesting read that offers a great example of a complex model. The explanations of the feedback loops are great for those new to stochastic modeling. The application and analysis paints an unbiased view of what may occur if nothing changes which is hard to hear for some but necessary to hear for all. Overall the authors do a good job building the model in the readers head from a component by component level until the entire system can be realized. A recommended read for those familiar with probabilistic modeling or interested in the ramifications of short sighted actions to the long term welfare of the planet.
This is an amazing explanation of the present world condition in terms of its coined word, ¨Overshoot¨: population and food supply, resources and climate warming, and political ramifications. Its amazement lies in the balanced development and explanation of each topic. It is a worthy study for anyone interested in understanding our overall situation, but, it is an amazing primer on how to write about something so disgraceful in such controlled language and example.
I read the first publication of this incredible study in college way back when we still used pen and paper for notes. This current update is disheartening in its scientific data. Don't get me wrong, the quality of the research and the predictions are beyond reproach, however, what it shows is that we have likely past the tipping point and the current global extinction (which is unique because it is not a natural event, but created by over-population of this planet by human kind), clearly in play.
It makes so much sense---we are in overshoot on our way to collapse. In such simple and convincing ways, these process engineers lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned growth ecomonics. And they show how making substantial yet not impossible changes could change the fortunes and bring us back to a sustainable balance. Do they overly-discount the potential benefits of new technology yet to be discovered to prevent collapse? I hope to hell they do because if there is anything that is clear, it is that human nature has 1) blind faith in new technology to save us (e.g. how else could nuclear power/waste be justified?) and 2) there is no way that humans will make substantial changes prior to collapse--balance will only be achieved afterwards and of course that means it will be less-rational, more-drastic, less-controllable, more-expensive, more-devastating, etc.
The 30-year update to "Limits to Growth" is possibly the most thought-provoking environmental book I've ever read. I had not read the original, but knew it was heavily criticized as "hysterical" by free-market enthusiasts, especially economist Julian Simon. So, I wasn't expecting the thoughtful, cautious, and considered analysis of the likely scenarios of an ever-expanding human population facing finite resources. The authors make an excellent point that infinite growth (people, food, water, economy, etc.) is simply not possible. Yet, every politician in the world advocates a policy of never-ending growth.The point of the book is not that we will all die from starvation. The point of the book is that if we do not want to run out of resources and live a miserable existence, we have to start planning now. Excellent book to read for your own education, and in some ways, it serves as an antidote to the popular culture's love affair with growth and consumption at any cost.
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